prediction registry

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computing: software: prediction registry

Overview

A prediction registry (PR) is any kind of software/service whereby individuals can register testable predictions about specific future events, and be rewarded (perhaps only in credibility, but with more material gain also being a possibility) for accuracy.

A few attempts have been made to create such a service, but they generally fall short in one or more ways, including:

• "wagering"-style registries are generally favored by well-funded individuals, often with an agenda to promote
• sites using non-PR-specific software (usually wiki-based) are generally easy to use but do not track individuals' "hit" scores

Specifications for a fully-featured prediction registry are being worked out here: prediction registry design (A specification is the most reliable way of producing good software that does what its designers intended.)

Examples

The following sites attempt to provide PR services, but do not really provide the full featureset needed:

• wager sites
  • Long Bets
  • Prediction Markets Cluster
  • Poolitics
• wiki-based
  • Prediction Registry at Issuepedia: mostly single-author at this point; no structure to help guide usage, etc.